District Matters

Closer working and keeping well

September 2020

Well, as it turned out there was not that much respite during August. Life continued to be busy and the autumn looks hectic.

Last month I mentioned that there were 19,800 people on the furlough scheme. The latest figures show this is now just over 20,000. Indeed when I add together the number of people unemployed (3,065), the number of people on the furlough scheme (21,200) and the number of people on the self-employed income support scheme (5,500) the total is almost 30,000. This is 43% of the working population of Stratford District. With the furlough scheme beginning to wind down this is, to me, a genuinely scary number. It appears inevitable that unemployment will increase dramatically by the end of the year. I still find that many people have not grasped the magnitude of the challenge awaiting us. Facing reality is the first step in dealing effectively with issues.

It appears as though unemployment will hit across the spectrum, anecdotally a considerable number of managerial and professional jobs will be affected.

Furthermore, the latest Local Authority forecasts by KPMG show Stratford District's Gross Value Added (GVA) falling by 14.4% in 2020 and recovery in 2021 drops well short of making up the fall. (Think of GVA as a proxy for economic activity). We are the worst hit local government area in the West Midlands. This reinforces the report earlier in the year, which showed Stratford District as the fourth hardest hit area in the country.

This is important because, historically, Stratford District has been seen as prosperous and with full employment. It therefore does not need support and can look after itself. We have managed to correct that perception and these figures enable us to reinforce our current position.

Now, to turn to better news, in August at one stage our car park occupancy was almost back to 2019 levels and footfall showed a similar pattern. Thanks to the ‘Eat Out to Help Out scheme' restaurants were busy. Although car parking and footfall are very weather dependent, it demonstrates the underlying resilience of Stratford-upon-Avon. This means that it is still an attractive place to invest in leisure, hospitality and tourism. We are working hard to ensure that we get more investment and I hope that within a short time I can confirm two substantial new investments. There is one further idea that we are working together with businesses on that would be genuinely exciting.

We have heard from central government about the third round of funding. It consisted of 24-pages of bureaucratic complexity our finance people are still attempting to decipher. The initial view is that it is far from generous.

Closer working with Warwick District continues to gather pace. One management team position working across both districts is now in place and we are recruiting for another starting this week.

There are two Planning White Papers out for consultation at the moment. These could have a very significant impact on the district. Officers are currently analysing these in detail and we will be briefed on these shortly.

On local government reorganisation, we received the draft report from Deloittes last Friday. We are currently studying this very closely but, from an initial reading I think the overall tone of the report is positive. This is an issue where there are two totally legitimate but differing views. There will inevitably be robust exchanges of view.

If I look at local government reorganisation, and the White Paper has yet to be issued, and the Planning White Papers, it is hard to escape the conclusion that there is a failure to think through the full implications and impacts of these proposals. I also think that when it comes to turning proposals into reality there may be a belief in magic wands, where the reality of change tends to be a long hard slog.

Keep well and stay safe.