District Matters

Renewable energy generated this winter

February 2023

It appears that we ‘dodged a bullet' this winter. It has been relatively mild and windy, so, although National Grid put coal fired power stations on standby, the lights stayed on. As more electricity is generated by renewables particularly wind, the variability of generation becomes a much more significant issue. Interestingly, the Met Office is now exploring the risk of ‘wind droughts' (reported in The Economist 11 February 2023). Such an event could have a catastrophic impact on supply. It reinforces my view that there will be no easy or cheap solutions to the issue of energy security.

There was some very interesting information on demographics in the Economic Impact Group I attended on 2 February 2023. The implications of baby booms in the late 1940's to the 1960's are now beginning to be felt. In the late 1940's, there was a very short and sharp baby boom, peaking at just under 900,000 births in 1947. These people are now in their mid-70's and are beginning to increase the pressure on the NHS and social care.

The baby boom in the late 1950's and early 1960's was much greater. The leading edge of this boom is approaching their mid-60's. These people are now beginning to leave the workforce in significant numbers.

Where this really begins to matter is in the impact on employment and, therefore, on inflation. One of the main concerns of the Bank of England rate setters is the impact of labour shortages on pay settlements. The demographic drivers will, I think, make it difficult to reduce the level of wage settlements. This means that inflation may be much ‘stickier'. In other words, inflation will be higher for longer than a lot of people expect. Interest rates may have to go higher and stay there longer than many expect. This will cause a shock as people are forced to adjust their expectations radically.

There is still some remarkably simplistic thinking amongst too many people that, whatever happens, the Government can ‘ride to the rescue'. I keep pointing out that this simply isn't going to be the case. The ill-fated premiership of Liz Truss brought that home with a vengeance. It will make no difference which party forms the government; the very real constraints remain.

Meanwhile, we have recently seen a tangible manifestation of the constraints imposed on Government. In ‘Levelling Up Round 2', some 111 projects were funded at a total value of £2.1 billion. Of the 111 projects, 62 were funded in Category 1 areas, the priority areas; 29 were funded in Category 2 areas. We in Stratford District are in a Category 2 area. There were 529 applications for funding which means just over 1 in 5 were successful overall. Excluding Category 1 areas, the success rate was much lower.

So, we have to be realistic. We have to accept our chances of success are limited. Perhaps we need even to ask ourselves whether devoting time and resources to bidding is worthwhile.

Closer to home, at the Cabinet Meeting on 6 February we allocated the available Community Infrastructure Levy funds. Funding was sought for 35 projects with a total cost of £44.2 million. We allocated the money available, £2.7 million, to 10 projects.

The clear conclusion is that there simply isn't enough money to do everything, no matter how worthy the cause.

Meanwhile, rather than expect central government to do everything for us, we are busy shaping our own destiny. This is clear from the Cabinet decisions on 6 February where we agreed:

• The Supplementary Planning Document for the Wellesbourne Innovation campus of the University of Warwick
• The Draft South Warwickshire Economic Strategy for Consultation

We also received an update on the work to secure the future of Wellesbourne Airfield.

Put these together with the South Warwickshire Local Plan currently out for consultation and we have laid strong foundations for the future prosperity and opportunity in our District. It has taken a lot of time, energy, effort and persistence to get to this point. We have, however, only laid the foundations. A lot more effort and energy will be needed to realise the full potential of these foundations.

Far too many people appear to expect ‘someone to do something', usually central government. They put their time and effort into whingeing and whining liberally about things they cannot do. I think it is far better that the District Council focuses on the issues that can be tackled and the things that can be done, rather than succumbing to a sense of powerlessness and dependency that results in inertia. I'll leave that to others.